AGP Executive Report

Ethiopia–Eritrea Rift Deepens: Ethiopia ordered the closure of its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, accusing them of threats to national security; Eritrea responded by severing all diplomatic ties, as fighting in northern Ethiopia intensifies and fears grow of a wider regional spillover. Regional War Fears: Multiple reports say clashes tied to the TPLF-led opposition alliance are spreading across Tigray and into Afar and Amhara, while explosions in Addis Ababa and claims of drone strikes add to uncertainty. Diplomatic Tit-for-Tat Widens: Ethiopia also declared an Egyptian diplomat persona non grata after reciprocal expulsions, with Egypt and Ethiopia trading accusations amid long-running disputes including the Nile dam. AU Urges Restraint: The African Union Commission called on Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to exercise maximum restraint, keep communication channels open, and resolve differences through peaceful dialogue. US–Eritrea Engagement: A senior Eritrean delegation met US officials in Washington, with Eritrea highlighting hopes to expand trade and investment and move beyond sanctions.

Eritrea–Ethiopia Diplomatic Break: Ethiopia ordered the closure of its Asmara embassy and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats within 48 hours, citing “hostility” and security threats as explosions were reported in Addis Ababa; Eritrea responded by severing all diplomatic ties, warning of “negative corollaries,” amid fears the northern Ethiopia conflict could spill into the Red Sea region. Northern Ethiopia Conflict: Fighting has intensified across Tigray, Amhara and Afar, with telecom cuts and suspended flights disrupting trade, aid and daily commerce; reports say government-aligned forces took Alamata while Tigrayan forces push into Afar, and drone strikes are being blamed for blasts near Ethiopia’s military sites. Regional Risk for Trade Routes: Analysts warn the corridor problem is worsening for Ethiopia’s seaborne trade because most cargo still funnels through Djibouti; any Red Sea disruption or insurance/freight shock hits fuel, factory inputs and household goods fast. Eritrea–Egypt Economic Talks: A senior Eritrean delegation met Egypt’s foreign affairs and transport officials in Cairo, discussing investment and trade in construction materials, pharmaceuticals, agriculture and maritime transport. Hospitality Investment in Ethiopia: Ethiopian Investment Holdings unveiled a $55m Hilton Garden Inn project in Addis Ababa, aiming to expand conference and tourism capacity as regional uncertainty tests business travel.

Hospitality & Investment: Ethiopia’s EIH unveiled a $55m Hilton Garden Inn plan (150 rooms plus wellness) inside the existing Hilton Addis Ababa compound, aiming to boost lodging and conference capacity ahead of COP32 in 2027. Diplomacy & Security: Ethiopia ordered the closure of its Asmara embassy and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats after blasts in Addis Ababa and renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia, accusing Eritrea of backing TPLF-linked forces. Regional Trade & Finance: Eritrea’s senior delegation met Egypt in Cairo to discuss expanding trade and investment in construction materials, pharmaceuticals, agriculture and marine resources, with Housing and Commercial Bank officials in attendance. Conflict Spillover Risk: Reports say renewed Tigray fighting is spreading toward Afar and Amhara, with explosions/drone claims near Addis Ababa raising fears of wider Horn instability and added pressure on Red Sea routes. Currency Watch: A currency roundup put Eritrea’s nakfa among Africa’s stronger performers (7th vs the US dollar) alongside Tunisia, Libya and Morocco.

Horn of Africa Security: Fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray is back in force after TPLF-led forces seized airports and opened new fronts, while Addis Ababa and allied militias counterattacked; the conflict is now raising fears of a wider regional spillover and renewed accusations involving Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt. Red Sea Trade Risk: As Houthi forces expand control near the Bab el-Mandeb, shipping and corridor costs are under pressure, with analysts warning the Red Sea crisis could deepen and intersect with Horn of Africa instability. Diplomacy & Mediation: Qatar reaffirmed its active mediation role, pointing to past agreements involving Eritrea and Djibouti and other regional peace efforts. Eritrea-US Sanctions Narrative: A report says there’s no proof Eritrea surrendered its Red Sea coast when US sanctions lapsed, pushing back on claims of a “bought” military foothold. Sports & Eritrea: South Africa’s Bafana Bafana thrashed Eritrea 5-0 in AFCON qualifiers, with coach Pitso Mosimane highlighting Eritrean striker Ali Suleiman as a key threat ahead of the next match. Diaspora Politics: Commentary says Eritrean opposition activity is shifting abroad—toward building international structures for life after President Isaias Afwerki.

Tigray Conflict & Humanitarian Fallout: Fighting around Alamata in Ethiopia’s Tigray has killed at least 52 civilians over three days, with government troops reportedly taking the town and pushing toward Mekelle; the clashes have also disrupted travel, leaving tourists stranded in Lalibela as airports close. Regional Security & Red Sea Risks: Analysts warn the renewed Ethiopia–Tigray war could widen across the Horn as Ethiopia accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing rebels, while Red Sea pressure grows amid Houthi activity—raising stakes for corridors that matter to Eritrea’s trade and security. Shipping Costs & Insurance: War-risk premiums for tankers linked to Saudi Red Sea ports have jumped sharply, reflecting higher perceived danger near Bab el-Mandeb—an added cost burden for regional logistics. Eritrea in Sports (AFCON): South Africa coach Pitso Mosimane says Eritrea will be a tough opponent in Cairo and flags Egyptian-based striker Ali Sulieman as the key threat. Diaspora Politics: A report says Eritrean opposition activity is shifting abroad—moving from street confrontation toward building an international political structure. Business/Investment Angle (Regional): Egypt’s mining sector is drawing renewed gold exploration interest as investors chase higher prices and new licensing momentum.

AFCON Qualifier: South Africa coach Pitso Mosimane urged fans not to underestimate Eritrea ahead of tonight’s Group D clash in Cairo, pointing to Eritrea’s point in Kenya and striker Ali Suleiman as a key threat. Red Sea & Regional Risk: Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia is again raising fears of a wider Horn-of-Africa spillover as Ethiopia’s army chief accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing Tigray forces—claims all deny—while Houthi expansion around Bab el-Mandeb keeps Red Sea shipping under pressure. Trade Costs: War-risk insurance for tankers linked to Saudi Red Sea ports has jumped sharply, underlining how corridor risk can quickly raise logistics costs for landlocked Ethiopia via the Djibouti route. Eritrea Sanctions: A debate continues after the US allowed Eritrea sanctions under EO14046 to lapse, with commentary pushing back on claims that Eritrea “surrendered” Red Sea access. Development & Infrastructure: Ethiopia’s planned Dangote-led fuel pipeline upgrade is framed as a major shift from trucked fuel to stored, piped supply—an economic resilience move with direct implications for regional trade flows. Sports Admin: Eritrea’s cycling team faced visa-related issues at the UCI Road World Championships, with riders unable to start due to entry problems.

Eritrea at the UCI Road World Championships: Eritrea’s Amanuel Ghebreigzabhier and Natnael Tesfatsion failed to start after visa problems blocked entry to Canada, leaving the team short-handed and triggering UCI fines for the squad. Horn of Africa security: Ethiopia’s renewed Tigray offensive is spreading beyond Tigray, with TPLF-linked forces taking airports and pushing into Afar and Amhara, while Ethiopia’s army chief accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing the rebels—claims Sudan denies. Humanitarian and infrastructure strain: UN and rights groups warn of rising civilian harm as communications disruptions hit Mekelle and parts of Amhara, and displacement in Afar is estimated at 150,000+. Red Sea trade pressure: Analysts link the wider conflict risk to Red Sea chokepoint instability, with Houthi moves around Bab el-Mandeb raising freight and energy-cost concerns for the Djibouti corridor. Eritrea–US sanctions update: Eritrea says the US lifted sanctions under EO 14046, though critics argue the impact is overstated and unresolved issues remain. Business/energy angle: A new Ethiopia–Djibouti fuel pipeline backed by Dangote is pitched as a logistics and energy-security upgrade that could cut costs versus truck transport.

Eritrea-US Trade & Sanctions: The Trump administration lifted US sanctions on Eritrea, including the ruling People’s Front for Democracy and Justice and the Eritrean military, saying the “national emergency” no longer applies; Eritrean officials welcomed the move and cited remedial steps. Water & Local Development: A new dam was inaugurated in Adi-Hawosha (Gala-Nefhi, Central Region), costing about 11 million Nakfa, with 180,000 cubic meters of storage to support potable water and irrigated farming. Regional Security & Trade Routes: Fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray escalated again as a rebel “Alliance for Survival” pushed beyond its core areas; Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing TPLF, while Sudan denied the claim—raising fears of wider instability that could disrupt Ethiopia’s reliance on Djibouti for trade. Red Sea Pressure: Houthi advances around Bab el-Mandeb and control of Perim and Mocha are tightening the Red Sea choke point, threatening freight and oil flows that matter for the Horn’s economy. Maritime Crime: Somalia stepped up coastal anti-piracy patrols as piracy resurged, including operations tied to the Eritrean-flagged vessel Sibu 1.

Red Sea Shipping Shock: The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is back in the spotlight as Houthi forces expand control along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, reportedly taking Perim island and the port city of Mocha—raising fears of fresh disruption to one of the world’s key chokepoints and possible oil-price pressure. Somalia Anti-Piracy Push: Somalia’s Puntland stepped up maritime security as piracy resurges, including patrols targeting pirate hideouts and action tied to the Eritrean-flagged vessel Sibu 1; parliament also approved tougher piracy and kidnapping measures. Ethiopia–TPLF War Spillover: Fighting between Ethiopia’s federal forces and the TPLF is intensifying across Afar and Amhara, with reports of airport seizures, drone strikes on Tigrai TV, internet disruption, and large displacement in Afar. Eritrea Accusations at UNGA: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea (along with Sudan and Egypt) of backing TPLF, while Sudan rejected the claim as “baseless,” escalating a regional blame game as the UN General Assembly meets. Eritrea Development & Water: Eritrea inaugurated a new dam in Adi-Hawosha (cost ~11 million Nakfa), aimed at potable water supply and irrigated agriculture. US Lifts Eritrea Sanctions: The US lifted sanctions on Eritrea and related entities, a move Eritrean officials welcomed as aligning with “realities on the ground.”

Ethiopia–Eritrea Accusations: Ethiopia’s army chief says Eritrea and Sudan are backing Tigray rebels as clashes intensify across Tigray and spill into Afar and Amhara, with reports of major displacement and rebel advances toward key towns. Humanitarian Alarm: Human rights groups warn civilians face rising risks as fighting disrupts aid and the 2022 peace framework looks increasingly fragile. Media Hit in Mekelle: A drone strike damaged Tigrai TV’s headquarters in Mekelle, knocking the station off air, while rebels press offensives and seize airports. Red Sea Trade Pressure: Analysts link the renewed Ethiopia conflict to wider Horn-of-Africa instability, warning that threats to the Djibouti corridor could raise costs for Ethiopia’s imports and exports. US Sanctions Lifted on Eritrea: The US lifted sanctions on Eritrea, including on the ruling party and military-linked entities, citing changed conditions. Eritrea Development: A new dam in Adi-Hawosha was inaugurated, targeting potable water supply and irrigated agriculture. Maritime Security Update: Puntland forces freed the Eritrean-flagged tanker Sibu 1 after a hijacking, ending a five-week ordeal.

US–Eritrea Relations: The United States lifted sanctions on Eritrea, including measures against Eritrea’s ruling party and military-linked entities, citing that the “national emergency” basis no longer applies—an outcome Eritrean officials welcomed as a corrective step. Water & Agriculture: Eritrea inaugurated a new dam in Adi-Hawosha (Gala-Nefhi), built with public and government support at about 11 million Nakfa, with 180,000 cubic meters of storage to boost potable water and irrigated farming. Red Sea Security & Trade: A wider Red Sea risk picture is sharpening as Houthi pressure and piracy dynamics threaten shipping routes that matter to the Horn, with Ethiopia’s Djibouti corridor exposure highlighted. Ethiopia Conflict Spillover: Renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray—plus reported drone strikes, airport seizures, and internet/phone disruptions—has revived fears of a return to full-scale war and renewed humanitarian strain, with UN officials urging restraint. Maritime Incident: Puntland forces freed the Eritrean-flagged tanker Sibu 1 after a counter-piracy operation, arresting pirates and ending a hijacking that began in August.

Tigray War Returns: Fighting reignited in Ethiopia’s Tigray after the TPLF declared all-out war, with rebels seizing airports and clashes spreading into Afar and Amhara; residents in Mekelle report panic buying and fear of a repeat of the 2020–2022 blockade, while Telecom Disruption: internet and phone services were disrupted and residents scrambled for SIM cards as banking and mobile payments were hit. Red Sea Trade Pressure: With Houthi advances around Bab el-Mandeb raising freight costs for the Djibouti corridor, Ethiopia’s overseas cargo exposure is again in focus, and analysts warn shipping risk could lift landed prices and squeeze export margins. Eritrea’s Regional Role: Commentary and interviews tie Eritrea to the wider Horn dynamics, including claims that renewed conflict could intersect with Red Sea security and regional proxy competition. Maritime Security Win: Puntland forces freed the Eritrean-flagged tanker Sibu 1 after a counter-piracy operation, with the crew safe and pirates taken prisoner. UN Economic/Health Policy: Eritrea’s UN statements emphasized pandemic preparedness and sea-level rise risks, while AfDB support for energy and fertilizer shocks highlights how regional instability can hit food and livelihoods.

Tigray War Returns: Heavy fighting between Ethiopia’s federal forces and Tigray-linked forces has reignited fears the 2022 Pretoria truce is collapsing, with clashes spreading into Afar and Amhara and reports of telecom and internet disruptions that could cut residents off from banking and cashless payments. Alliance for Survival: Ethiopia’s army chief says foreign backers are fueling instability as seven armed groups announce a new coalition aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed—raising the risk of a wider Horn-of-Africa conflict. Red Sea Freight Shock: Houthi control around Perim and Mokha is pushing up Red Sea freight costs and increasing risk for Ethiopia’s Djibouti corridor, with shipping reroutes and higher insurance pressures. Eritrea at the UN: Eritrea’s foreign minister delivered UN statements on pandemic preparedness and on sea-level rise as existential threats, underscoring the country’s Red Sea exposure. Piracy Update (Sibu 1): Puntland forces freed the Eritrean-flagged tanker Sibu 1 after a counter-piracy operation; the 20 crew were unharmed and pirates were taken into custody. Energy/Fertilizer Buffer: AfDB approved up to USD5.1bn in emergency support to help high-vulnerability countries, including Ethiopia, absorb Middle East-driven energy and fertilizer shocks.

Eritrea at the UN: Foreign Minister Osman Saleh used UNGA platforms to push for stronger, equitable pandemic prevention and preparedness, arguing that access to medicines, technology transfer and local production must be protected from IP and unilateral coercive measures. He also backed sea-level rise action, stressing Eritrea’s high exposure through its Red Sea coastline and islands and calling for legal stability and support for coastal adaptation. Red Sea security & regional risk: With fighting flaring in Ethiopia’s Tigray and fears of telecom and supply blockades returning, analysts say Eritrea’s Red Sea position could again matter for wider Horn of Africa stability. Ethiopia conflict spillover: Reports describe heavy clashes across Tigray, Afar and Amhara, plus internet and phone disruptions that threaten cashless banking and daily commerce. Maritime trade: Puntland freed the US-sanctioned, Eritrea-flagged oil tanker Sibu 1 after a two-day anti-piracy operation; the 20 crew were reported safe and pirates were taken prisoner. Diplomacy: Eritrea’s UN engagement also comes as regional talks continue, including Attaf’s meetings with South Africa, Namibia, Nigeria and Eritrea on cooperation in areas like mining and hydrocarbons.

Ethiopia–Tigray Crisis: Internet and phone services were disrupted across northern Ethiopia’s Tigray after renewed clashes since Wednesday, with fears of a repeat of the 2020–2022 blockade. Reuters reports the Tigray People’s Liberation Front ordered Ethio telecom and Safaricom to shut networks, while NetBlocks confirmed the outage; residents in Mekelle and beyond scrambled for SIM cards and supplies as fighting spread into Afar and Amhara. Regional Trade & Security: Analysts warn the renewed offensive could target key land corridors linking Ethiopia to Djibouti, raising risks for Red Sea-linked commerce. Eritrea’s Strategic Role: Commentary highlights that Eritrea’s position near Bab el-Mandeb could again matter for Red Sea security as the US seeks partners amid wider tensions. Maritime Business: Puntland freed the Eritrea-flagged tanker Sibu 1 after a two-day counter-piracy operation; the US-sanctioned vessel had been hijacked in August and is now under Puntland custody. Sports & Cross-Border Focus: Kenya’s Harambee Stars said an allowance dispute is settled as they prepare for an AFCON 2027 qualifier vs Eritrea, with officials also addressing work-permit concerns for the coaching staff.

Ethiopia–Tigray Conflict: Fighting has flared again in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray, with Tigrayan forces seizing airports and launching attacks into Afar and Amhara, while federal forces report repelling assaults and using drones; residents in Mekelle and beyond are stocking up on food and cash as fears grow of a repeat of the 2020–2022 war, including internet disruptions and supply blockades. Regional Spillover Risk: Analysts and international voices warn the renewed offensive could destabilize the Horn of Africa and pull in Eritrea and other neighbors, especially as a new rebel alliance forms to challenge Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Eritrea–Related Diplomacy: Eritrea’s Foreign Minister Osman Saleh addressed UNGA on the right to development, while an EEPA statement criticized the US for lifting targeted sanctions on Eritrea without governance and human-rights conditions. Sports & Economy Link: In Kenya, the Ministry of Sports says it has cleared Harambee Stars allowances and technical staff salaries ahead of the AFCON 2027 qualifier against Eritrea, after earlier training disruptions and payment concerns.